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What're The Odds!?

Just for the record, and ease of reference, here's a list (*) of all the Tory MPs in Scotland, and the odds being offered by bookies on their prospects for re-election. The odds in brackets are for the SNP challenger. 

Constituency  Incumbent  Majority Odds

West Aberdeen/Kincardine   Andrew Bowie   7950   4/9 (13/8)

Gordon   Colin Clarke   2607   EVENS (EVENS)

West Dunbartonshire   David Duguid   3693   33/1 (1/7)

Ochil/Sth Perthshire   Luke Graham   3359   13/10 (8/15)

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock   Bill Grant   2774   13/8 (4/9)

Angus   Kirstene Hair   2645   11/8 (8/15)

Dumfries & Galloway   Alister Jack   5643   8/11 (EVENS)

Stirling   Stephen Kerr   148   2/1 (4/11)

Berwiskshire, Roxburgh/Selkirk   John Lamont   11060   2/7 (5/2)

East Renfrewshire   Paul Masterton   4712   5/6 (5/6)

Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale   David Mundell   4159   1/4 (11/4)

Moray   Douglas Ross   4159   5/6 (5/6)

Aberdeen South   ???  (was Ross Thomson)   4752   2/1 (4/11)

 

*source - https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ian Brotherhood

Thank you Ian but could you now please explain to an absolute ignoramous what it means.  I think the first figure is the number of pounds you have to put down to get the second figure if you win. So if you take the first example Cons 4/9 you would gain £5 or SNP 13/8 you would loose £5.  Though why on earth anyone would bet to loose money is beyond me. Does this mean the bookies think the SNP will win this seat? 

But then I look at Kristene Hair 11/8 against (8/15). Surely they don’t think she will win! 

And Alister Jack 8/11 against (evens).  Why would anyone bet to get the same back?  Does this mean they think Richard Arkless may win but they are not sure enough to risk 1/2 

And looking at Fluffy and Ross Thomson - sorry my brain has just given up and scuttled of to hide behind the couch.

Now then Ian, not wishing to be awkward but those are only the Blue Torys you have quoted.

For " Balance" as the BBC puts it, should we not also list the Red and Yellow Torys.

e.g Our Yellow Tory is Jamie Stone who is at 2/5 whilst SNP candidate Karl Rosie is at 7/4 so a fair push needed up here over the next 24 days. However, SNP have been pretty active round the doors over the weekend with mix of returns between good and neutral, depending on who you ask. 

Ann B,

Yeah, it's tricky if you don't know what the 'odds' means.

The example you gave, Bowie at 4/9, means that he is favourite. So, if you put £9 on him winning (doesn't have to be £9, it could be a tenner, fifty pence, £10,000, whatever) and he does, you would get your £9 back, plus £4.  You always get your stake back if your selection wins (unless you're doing an -each-way bet, but that's another ball game altogether). The SNP at 13/8 means that if you put £8 on them to win, and they do, you'd get back your £8 plus £13. 'EVENS' means that you would get your £1 stake back, and £1 from the bookie.

A hot favourite like Mundell at 1/4 means you'd have to stake £4 just to 'win' an extra pound. Hardly seems worth it but I suppose it's all relative - if you know you can turn £4 into £5, where's the downside? I'm not much of a gambler but I've heard it said that the professionals only ever back favourites.  Thepnr is knowledgeable when it comes to this stuff, so maybe he'll pop in and explain it better than I have!

😉

Ian Brotherhood

Thank you Ian I didn’t know any of that. It makes a lot more sense now but I am still not tempted to try it.  It will be useful when I am re-reading Dick Francis. But how on earth can Fluffy be a hot favourite! I despair. I think I will go and join my brain behind the couch. 

Hacka, you're a hard man to please!

Okay, here's the rest of them:

East Dunbartonshire   Jo Swinson   5339   2/9 (3/1)

Edinburgh West   Christine Jardine   2988   1/3 (9/4)

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross    Jamie Stone   2044   2/5 (7/4)

Orkney & Shetland   Alistair Carmichael   4563   1/12 (6/1)

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill   Hugh Gaffney   1586   9/4 (1/3)

Rutherglen/Hamilton West   Ged Killen   265   7/2 (1/6)

Kirkcaldy/Cowdenbeath   Lesley Laird   259   12/5 (3/10)

Edinburgh South   Ian Murray   4159   2/7 (5/2)

Midlothian   Danielle Rowley   885   5/2 (2/7)

Glasgow North East   Paul Sweeney   242   7/2 (1/6)

East Lothian   Martin Whitfield   3083   11/4 (5/6)

🙂

 

 

 

Ian Brotherhood
Quote from Ian Brotherhood on 17th November 2019, 5:31 pm

Hacka, you're a hard man to please!

Apologies for the delayed reply Ian, I've been slaving over a hot stove for the last three hours. I can assure you there is someone harder to please than me, in this house 😅.. well, that's my Brownie points reset to Zero 😱

So - if I understand this right - if I put £90 on Jo Swinson to keep her seat I would get that back plus £20 if she does.

If I put £90 on her opponent to win, and they do, then I would get £180 back plus my original stake?

Struggling to understand all this too.

@Capella -

Aye, bang-on.!

I know it's a bit tricky at first. 

It's amazing how some folk who are not very good with numbers otherwise can calculate combinations of odds on multiple bets. Most of us would need a calculator. I've seen really quite nasty arguments in bookie shops over the totiest amounts.

Ian Brotherhood

 

 

Perhaps someone who is into betting could work out some affordable, entertaining and potentially profitable accumulators we could bet on ?

 

 

I'm sure bookies and their runners (if that's the right word) are mathematical geniuses. But I haven't used maths since I left school. Thank god for spreadsheets! I once took an arithmetic primer on holiday in Switzerland as I had completely forgotten how to do long division. Sat on my chalet balcony with a coffee doing sums!. Almost as good as doing crosswords. 🙂

All forgotten now.

UPDATE

Had a wee swatch at the odds last night. Nothing major to report, pretty much the same but will keep an eye on it and post details here as and when.

🙂

Ian Brotherhood

Caught my attention with the post Ian B.  Interesting and some effort put in too with that information.

I'm au fait with the way it works.  But not an actual betting person, apart from stocks and shares for the last 7 yrs or so.

I look forward to see how it all plays out.

PS:

Two to go in The National X-word.

 

 

 

D. R. Cunningham.

Good luck with the x-word. Friday isn't one of my days but you've just reminded me that I haven't picked up my paper from the shop!

I'm crap at doing x-words, don't know how folk have the patience!

😉

Ian Brotherhood

Update:

Overall, pretty much no change to the above. Minor variations one way and t'other. Roughly a third have stayed exactly the same, another third show slight shift to the unionist incumbents, the remainder are SNP candidates becoming a tad more favourite than they already were. But of course, the one big shifter is Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath where Lesley Laird has a majority of 259. On 21st Dec she was 3/1 to retain the seat, with SNP favourites at 1/4. 

Now, there is no official SNP candidate. Neale Hanvey is still standing but is now 5/4. This seat should've been a slam-dunk for SNP. Now, it seems, NS is actively discouraging voters from selecting him. 

Go figure, as they say...

🙁

Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/kirkcaldy-and-cowdenbeath

Ian Brotherhood

 

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